How will the next economic collapse look step by step? Where will it start? When will it start? What impact will it have, and how will the world look after the global economic crisis and the Next Great Recession?
Regarding how it will play out, Cezary Graf notes that Trump and Federal Reserve policy will lead to financial collapse around the world. The economic collapse has already started. The Turkish lira is plunging, the Argentinian central bank has increased interest rates to the cosmic level of 60%, and Iranian inflation is skyrocketing.
However, these are minor players. The crucial years will be 2019 and 2023 when the deadly cocktail will be served for India, Pakistan, China, Japan, and the European Union, among others. In 2023, the United States and the dollar will also be hit; however, the magnitude will be significantly limited, in contrast to what many are currently saying about the upcoming dollar collapse. In 2023, after the next global financial crisis, the United States will be in the best shape of all major countries. I am ready to take bets.
It is very naive to expect that after the 2000 dot-com bubble burst and 2008-2009 economic collapse, that the third one will again start in the US.
From a conservative point of view, the US currency and bond supply are perhaps still too high, and rates may still be too low, however, despite its peculiarity, the dollar and US debt are the most popular US exports.
During the next two years, when major emerging markets will be struck by various crises, we will have massive capital flows into the US. This will include the dollar itself, the US bond market, the US stock market, and US real
estate.
Two major trends can be expected:
1 – A massive human migration crisis. Emerging market countries’ citizens will be displaced because of economic reasons. And yet again, the US under the Trump administration will manage it relatively well.
2 – A massive chunk of the capital pulled out of emerging markets will be channeled to the most robust cryptocurrencies. The devaluation of EM currencies, the dismantling of the SWIFT system, and the pursuit of new investment solutions by private, corporate, and public parties will be the main causes of this great money migration.
Cezary Graf states that the value of cryptocurrencies will rise substantially from mid-2018 levels, thus making potential returns from other capital allocations much less attractive. Ignoring this is the manifestation of a deep misunderstanding of where the world is now and where it is going.
This will be the first crisis with the crypto option on the table.
What is a ‘Cryptocurrency’
A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security. A cryptocurrency is difficult to counterfeit because of this security feature. A defining feature of a cryptocurrency and arguably its most endearing allure is its organic nature; it is not issued by any central authority, rendering it theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation.
Cryptocurrency Benefits and Drawbacks
Cryptocurrencies make it easier to transfer funds between two parties in a transaction; these transfers are facilitated through the use of public and private keys for security purposes. These fund transfers are done with minimal processing fees, allowing users to avoid the steep fees charged by most banks and financial institutions for wire transfers.
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Cezary Graf
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