Are we on the verge of a Brexit General Election?!

There is much speculation that, because of the Brexit deadlock, the UK could be headed for yet another General Election.

Cue Brenda from Bristol: “You’re joking – not another one!?”

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Although Downing Street of course denies any such thing, according to the Sun cabinet insiders are warning that the Prime Minister is ‘running out of road’.

The PM’s official spokeswoman has emphatically ruled out such an event, but there are reports that the Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill has been discussing possible preparations for a general election with his top mandarins.

And then come further reports that three cabinet ministers have told their constituency parties to get ready for a snap election.

And the Sun quotes one unnamed cabinet source as saying that an election “once unthinkable, is now a very likely option. It’s all everyone’s talking about.”

The thinking appears to be that it would be a Brexit based election (surprise, surprise), with the Tories under Theresa May campaigning on an updated version of her deal, versus a Corbyn Labour proposal of more negotiations dragging on.

But the first hurdle would be to get two thirds of MPs to actually vote for an election. In these politically torrid times there may be many who fear for their futures in the House of Commons and who would be unwilling to face the electorate at this time – especially those on the wrong side of the Brexit argument compared to their own voters.

But going to the country is where the real problems start for them.

First Labour.

Corbyn has said he would follow Brexit through and does not want another EU referendum.

But the party members and the Momentum machine behind them do want a second referendum.

And as Labour decides manifesto commitments via internal democracy, Corbyn could find himself forced to lead a manifesto of promising a second EU referendum, which could damage the party’s chances as recent polling suggests he could lose a lot of support amongst voters with that policy.

Then the Tories.

If May tries to push her Brexit In Name Only deal onto the Tory manifesto, how on earth can she keep onboard the likes of those of her MPs who are members of the highly eurosceptic European Research Group (ERG), of which Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg is the chairman?

And is the largely eurosceptic Conservative Party voter base that hates her deal going to support her in the end, or just stay at home? Or, worse for her but great for Gerard Batten, vote for the UKIP pound sign?

And while they’re all pondering on this, the crunch date of the 29th March will be approaching at a significant rate of knots. This could make an automatic WTO exit from the EU almost inevitable, especially as parliament shuts down for the final 25 days before polling day.

Unless, and this is the stinger, unless parliament voted to approach the EU to agree to extend Article 50 prior to the election. And given that it would take over a year to conduct Labour’s second referendum and more time to hold the general election too, then we could be looking at a long extension.

And there’d be calls by some MPs for the unilateral revocation of the Article 50 letter so that Brexit could be completely reversed before the election, without needing any permission from Brussels.

I don’t think our MPs would vote for an election without a lengthy extension already agreed by Brussels and in the bag, or that the Article 50 letter was already revoked.

The Tories want to stay in power and Labour wants to be in power. So you would think that they would have to come out with a blinding Brexit plan – but they won’t need to.

Firstly because they’d already have kicked the Article 50 can down the road and secondly because they’ll do what they always do.

They will come out with the usual tactics of Labour and Tory MPs lying and saying to the press, that when on the doorstep Brexit isn’t anywhere near the top of voters’ concerns.

They will do all they can to turn any general election into a direct Blue Versus Red tussle over domestic issues.

The Tories will talk about protecting the economy and protecting the NHS.

Labour will talk about taxing the rich and protecting the NHS.

And somewhere near the bottom they’ll both say – oh, and we’ll sort out Brexit too. But they won’t say exactly how, or when!

Sources:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8230081/tory-ministers-general-election-february/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/labour-would-lose-voters-with-stop-brexit-policy-poll-suggests

Are we on the verge of a Brexit General Election?!

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